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Tuesday, November 30, 2010 | 10:56am
Can Sarah Palin Win the White House in 2012?
Our resident Political guru, Malcolm weighs in.
@sarahpalinusa #sarahpalin #teaparty
After a brief hiatus is was very good to see our good friend and Highbrid Nation resident Political handicapper, Malcolm back on the comment boards this week. I reached out to him behind the scenes to chop it up on a few topics and to sharpen my political acumen. Following the Republican shellacking of the Democratic Party in this month’s midterm elections people have begun to speculate if former Vice Presidential Candidate turned Tea Party Figurine turned reality TV star Sarah Palin could really win the GOP nomination and subsequently the White House. Malcolm, being the expert who called the election for Barack Obama some 12 months in advance before most of us even knew his name, I reached out to him to pick his brain on the issue. Here are his thoughts.
If she runs, it will be like Rudy all over again (where everyone talks about it but there were very few actual votes).
But yes, she’ll run. She’ll run, she’ll get the spotlight until the first primary, and then she’ll slowly disappear; maybe coming back in 20 years for a VH1 “Where are they now” segment.
The TV show is about two things: Money and exposure.
With the exception of her FOX job, she’s unemployed, and wants to cash in on the bucks while she’s still popular.
In her mind, she might also think that it’s like Ronald Reagan and GE. (Reagan did a TV show for GE, which allowed him weekly access to the homes (and minds) of the American public; and it did a lot to make him known, trusted, and respected by the average American)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric_Theater
But as far as Sarah goes, the numbers just aren’t there.
Think Ron Paul 2008. He had rabid supporters, he had access to large amounts of money, but he didn’t have enough votes to get out of the gate.
I think to track Sarah’s real support, we can look at her ratings. The first show went over big, but there were a lot of people watching to see the train wreck.
According to Reuters, her ratings have tanked.
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/tv/111959-qsarah-palins-alaskaq-ratings-plummet-reuters.html
Now as to the political…
As I’ve said before, both parties use water carriers between the real elections. People who have no real chance are sent out, pumped up, over exposed, and allow to express the most radical party line, just to keep the brand (republican or democrat) active in the minds of the buying public.
They’re the “comic relief”, the clown sent out to entertain the crowd before the grownups step in for the real show.
As a general rule, the ‘front runner’ this early NEVER gets very far. (think Howard Dean, Gary Hart, etc)
The republican establishment had to publically support Palin in 2008 because she was the nominee, and you don’t win elections by openly opposing your own nominee.
The American public like her because she’s a MILF, and she’s more exciting to watch than the old men they usually see.
But there’s no way in hell that they will allow her anywhere near another nomination.
Going into a state and reaping havoc on a local congressional election is one thing (those are easy to win or screw up); but on a national level, she just doesn’t have the muscle.
Well there you have it. I guess the next question is can Barack Obama right the ship enough to instill faith in voters to re-elect him for a second term. Hell will he even decide to or decide instead to take his two cute kids and his wife and “fade into bolivia.” But that’s another discussion for another day.
FILED IN Editorials, Need to Know
Mitt Romney is the GOP front runner by all accounts Romney vs. Obama
She could win, if every intelligent person suddenly died, and that would be gee-golly god awful, dont cha know (Palin voice)….
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Or maybe she she doesn’t have to win by votes….. Look at George W. Bush, some still swear that he didnt really win his first term. Who is to say she won’t or can’t pull the same bamboozle?
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But all in all, if she is the front runner for the GOP she will not win the fair fight. Nobody really likes her, past being entertaining. The Repubs laugh at her and the Dems laugh at her, proving her political power is close to nil….
Would people Vote Left-eye to office? Is it possible?
Oh where to begin…
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First, 4pl is entirely correct when they say that it is Mitt’s race to win or lose (or pass).
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Romney is also the person in the strongest position to beat Obama. He can claim experience running a multi-million dollar business, and (to sway the moderate democrat), he can point out that long before Obama or Palin were even on the political scene, he was giving nearly universal health care in the state he ran.
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(Romney used to be considered unelectable because his health care policies were far too liberal and because people didn’t think that a Mormon could get elected. Now, with health care being an issue that has to be fought out in the election and the perception that Obama is a Muslim, it’s almost as if the mountains have spread apart, making a path just for Romney.
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The question is: Will Romney run? In modern times, you only get one chance as the nominee, so you need to make sure that it’s something you will win the first time.
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In the background there is a growing feeling that Newt Gingrich is going to try to make a move (either for himself or as king-maker for Sarah). I think he’s going to try to pull a Cheney, where he pushes as Palin-Gingrich ticket with the understanding that the VP (like Cheney) would be running the show.
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The question also is: Will Obama run again? I’ve been saying since November 2008 that if Obama was smart, he would not run for the second term. (the second term is always when the scandals happen, the image gets tarnished, and the headaches are plenty. Better to leave after one term with your pension and reputation intact).
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@ Mr Bad Guy. It doesn’t matter that he didn’t win the popular vote. He won the electoral vote, and that’s all that matters. You can’t fault him for playing within the rules. It’s kind of like when a football team will intentionally get a penalty to stop a play. It’s worth the 15 yards if it’s going to stop an 80 yard run.
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As far as Sarah goes, there are several reasons they would never let her near the nomination, but the biggest one is this: She isn’t smart enough. She’s a small town girl with a small town education, and she doesn’t have the mind to grasp American history, let alone the complex maneuvering that governing requires.
so it doesn’t matter that people love her? What is your gut on whether Obama will run again? We can revisit it later but today what do you think?
I think that Obama will run again, and I think it will be a mistake.
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There’s a difference between loving something and trusting it to run the country.
What does that mean? So you think ‘America’ made a mistake?
Yes President Obama , even Hybrid just calls his Obama or Barack give the man some respect on the real. Yes he will run but will not win . Voting 4 President Obama was not a mistake reelecting that Bush bitch the 2nd time even tho he did not win the 1st time was the mistake.Look nation Pres.Obama can’t fix in 2 yrs or 4 yrs or even 8 yrs what Hitler Bush did in his 8 yrs of neglect of the American public.President Obama is Black period and that’s what AmeriKKKa is pissed about!!! Plain and simple if he were a white male they would not be as upset. Do u know what this man has done? He has shattered that Rapper/Athelete syndrome which is a big boost 4 African American kids all over. U can set your goals higher than Lindsay Cokehead at a crack smoking contest.He will not fix this economy in his 1st term nor will he in his 2nd if elected.This is a President after President fix it will take at least 16 continuous yrs to fix this mess Bush and the others b4 him made. Sarah Palin has her usual fans KKK, Neo Nazi NASCAR moms rednecKKK types but overall she may have a chance but if she did happen 2 win it would be back 2 the slave ship 4 all “Darkeez” including me .So if u think “U got it Bad” like Usher now just w8 playboy u aint seen Jack yet.
Palin running for Commander and Chief would be the greatest thing possible for the Democratic party. In fact, thats what would happen if she does get the Republican nomination-there will be a Democratic party in Washington. All the Dems will be partying cause they’ll know they’ve got job security. What the President needs now is to start spotlightin’ the goods comin’ out of his administrations time in service. He needs to become more assertive and more vocal. Mr.Obama needs to check them folks that keep on poppin off at the mouth with accusations and insinuations about his citizenship, religion and undermining his Presidentials.
Co-sign Drewski, President Obama should get buck with these trick asses who r h8n they have blamed President Obama 4 everything from the economy, 2 9/11 to the Space Shuttle tragedy in 1986 to Watergate and the Kennedy Assassination. Time to get Chi-Town on them President Obama ….bring the drama.
Re: Mistake.
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It wasn’t a mistake to elect him, but I think it would be a mistake for him to run for a second term.
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If he runs and loses it’s a mistake. If he runs, wins, and the s**t hits the fan, it will wind up being a mistake.
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The only way that he wins is if he wins the second term and then does something so spectacular that his image goes up. That’s a long shot.
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The second term curse is really something to think about. Presidents busted or injured in the second term include Nixon, Reagan, Bush2, Johnson, and others.
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Get out after the first term, while on top. That’s really the only way to do it.
Brother Malcolm President Obama was in a no win shit….uation when he went through the door he had to know this.Anytime he has an idea or trying to pass a bill it’s going to be rejected by the right even the left as well. He has ppl in his own circle he shouldn’t trust .It reminds me of JFK . As 4 him running again he should run again but not be as soft as he is now.He needs to come out on the defensive on everything and remind AmeriKKKa why it’s in this mess 2 begin with. It goes back further than Hitler/Bush2. To place blame on President Obama blame 4 every single bad shit….uation AmeriKKKa has faced since he has been in office is insane.